The most difficult decision is often made before the start.
Nearly every pilot knows the situation.
The weather isn't looking optimal, the wind is stronger than expected, or you're not feeling 100% after a short night. At the same time, friends or family are looking forward to the trip, a business appointment awaits, or a hotel has already been booked.
It is in precisely these moments that the actual decision-making process begins.
While many flight decisions can be made based on clear procedures, there is often no definitive answer to the question „to fly or not to fly?“. This makes honest self-assessment all the more important.
Most accidents start long before take-off
Investigations by numerous aviation authorities and accident investigation bodies have shown a similar picture for years.
Rarely is a single technical defect the sole cause of an accident. Far more often, a chain of several small decisions arises, where warning signs are ignored or deliberately downplayed.
The first mistake often happens right on the ground.
Instead of critically questioning the flight plan, pilots often try to find reasons why the flight might still be possible.
This creeping process is one of the biggest risk factors in General Aviation.
Continuation Bias
In aviation psychology, this behaviour is known as Plan Continuation Bias Known.
This refers to the tendency to stick to a plan once it has been made, even though the circumstances have since deteriorated.
Humans want to complete projects they've started. Time already invested, organisational effort, or the expectations of others create additional pressure.
Typical thoughts include:
- „The weather will surely improve on the way.“
- „The clouds don't look too bad.“
- „Others start too, after all.“
- „Everything will be alright.“
This very way of thinking is repeatedly found in accident reports.
External pressure influences decisions
Not only the pilot himself generates pressure.
Passengers may have taken extra holiday leave or have been looking forward to a scenic flight for weeks. Business partners expect punctual arrivals, hotel rooms are reserved, or an event is taking place at the destination.
Economic aspects are also added.
Those who have chartered an aircraft may fear cancellation fees or wish not to forfeit the booked flight day. Club aircraft are often booked well in advance, meaning some pilots are reluctant to cancel at short notice.
However, all these factors have one thing in common:
They neither improve the weather nor shorten the landing distance or increase one's own performance.
Boundaries are personal – not legal
Legal visual flight rules merely define the minimum requirements for a legal flight.
However, they say nothing about whether a flight can also be conducted safely under the given conditions.
A pilot with few hours on a new type will have different personal limits than a very experienced IFR pilot.
Own deadlines should therefore be deliberately set.
These include, for example:
- maximum crosswind component,
- minimum cloud base,
- minimum visibility,
- maximum permissible gustiness,
- personal minimum fuel reserves,
- as well as individual limits for night or mountain flights.
These values may at any time be stricter than the statutory requirements.
Not everyone starts under the same conditions
A common mistake is to use other pilots' decisions as a benchmark.
The phrase „Everyone else is flying too“ is practically meaningless in aviation.
Perhaps the other pilot has significantly more experience, holds an instrument rating, or has known the destination airfield for years.
He may also be flying a completely different aircraft with better performance reserves or more modern avionics.
Each flight must therefore be assessed exclusively on the basis of one's own abilities, one's own aircraft, and the current situation.
Technology knows no compromise
Even minor technical oddities deserve attention.
An unusual noise, a new warning message, or minor damage to the airframe may seem harmless. However, without expert assessment, it remains unclear what the actual consequences are.
Therefore, a simple principle applies:
In case of doubt, the decision is not made by a fellow club member or a technically interested hangar neighbour, but by an approved maintenance company or inspector.
Modern aircraft, in particular, feature complex systems whose condition often cannot be assessed solely by visual inspection.
Health is more than just „not ill“
Pilots often underestimate the influence of their own physical and mental condition.
You don't have to have a high fever to be unfit to fly.
The following factors alone can significantly impair concentration and decision-making ability:
- Lack of sleep,
- mental stress,
- Workload,
- Dehydration,
- intense heat,
- emotional emergencies,
- early diseases,
- Side effects of medication.
Specifically, stress and fatigue have been shown to negatively affect attention, reaction time, and risk assessment.
I'M SAFE – the short self-check before every flight
For many years, aviation authorities worldwide have recommended the I'M-SAFE Checklist, to check personal flight suitability.
The individual letters stand for:
- Illness Am I healthy?
- Medicines – Do medications affect my performance?
- Stress Am I under particular pressure?
- Alcohol - Am I free from the effects of alcohol?
- Tiredness – Have I had enough sleep?
- Eating / Emotion Have I eaten and drunk enough, and am I emotionally balanced?
Even one critical point should be cause to carefully reconsider the flight plans.
Altitude and power reserves are also part of the decision
It's not just the weather and personal fitness that play a role.
High temperatures, high airfield elevations or heavy payloads can significantly limit an aircraft's performance.
On summer days in particular, the so-called density altitude increases, sometimes significantly. The consequences are longer take-off runs, reduced climb performance and lower safety margins.
A flight that would have been perfectly feasible in spring can become critical under the same conditions in midsummer.
These factors also belong to a responsible go/no-go decision.
An overnight stay is often the best alternative
It is precisely on longer journeys that the strong desire to return home often arises.
However, if the weather or technology deteriorates, an unplanned overnight stay is often the significantly better solution.
A hotel room costs significantly less than a damaged aeroplane – and certainly less than the consequences of an accident.
Experienced pilots therefore do not view an unscheduled stopover as a defeat, but as an expression of good flying decision-making skills.
Safety begins with clear communication
If a flight is cancelled, this should be communicated openly and transparently.
Passengers usually accept a cancellation without problems if they understand that the decision is solely for their safety.
Complicated meteorological technical terms are often not even necessary.
A simple explanation like „The safety margins are not sufficient today“ usually conveys more understanding than a detailed discussion about cloud bases or wind profiles.
Conclusion
The ability to cancel a flight in good time is one of the most important competencies of a responsible pilot. Technical skill, precise landings or perfect navigation lose their value if the fundamental decision to take off is made under the wrong circumstances.
Professional airmanship does not mean flying under all circumstances, but rather assessing risks realistically and acting decisively. Those who consciously decide against flying because the weather, technical issues, or their own condition raise doubts demonstrate flying maturity and a sense of responsibility.
The well-known saying therefore remains unchanged as one of the most important safety rules in aviation: It's better to be on the ground wishing you were in the air, than to be in the air wishing you had stayed on the ground.
Source references:
Aviation magazine
