The approach: 1000 hours as a standardised risk basis
Ceipek criticises the fact that many studies on the hazardousness of activities use inconsistent comparative variables. To get round this, he calculates the Probability of dying if you do an activity for 1000 hours. This allows objective comparisons to be made between flying, driving, motorcycling, riding, swimming and many other leisure activities.
The figures at a glance: How risky is private aviation?
Ceipek's analysis is based on US statistics (NTSB, FAA, CDC). However, the findings can also be applied to European conditions. Here is a selection:
| Activity | Risk of death at 1000 hours | Comparison with the airline (0.01 %) |
|---|---|---|
| Commercial aircraft (airliner) | 0.01 % | Reference value (1×) |
| Driving a car | 0.04 % | 4× |
| Riding | 0.5 % | 50× |
| Private motorised flight | 1.6 % | 160× |
| Ride a motorbike | 1.0 % | 100× |
| Parachuting | 5.6 % | 560× |
| Climb Mount Everest | 40 % | 4000× |
| Base Jumping | >99 % | >9900× |
This means: Private flying with a motorised aircraft is around 160 times more dangerous than flying with a commercial aircraftand comparable to riding a motorbike. Driving a car may be riskier than flying an airliner, but around 40 times safer than private flying.
And how dangerous is "normal life"?
Ceipek also calculated the general mortality risk in everyday life - without additional risky activities - depending on age. According to this, an 18-year-old has a similarly low risk of dying within the next 1000 hours of life as a passenger in an airliner. For a 90-year-old, on the other hand, it is about as high as for a private pilot in a motorised flight.
This observation makes it clear: Private aviation is in the area of the highest everyday risks - at least in comparison to traditional means of transport.
Why deal with the risk?
Many pilots like to ignore risks. Ceipek calls this "natural but dangerous behaviour". Because only those who are aware of the risk can actively implement strategies to minimise it:
- Training and regular flying practice, also with teacher
- Strict use of checklists and structured decision-making processes
- Use of modern safety equipment (e.g. overall rescue systems)
- Realistic self-assessment and flight preparation
- CRM elements also in the cockpit of smaller aircraft
What private aviation can learn from airline security
Commercial aviation is the safest means of transport today. This is not only due to the technology, but above all to:
- Standardised procedure
- Double occupancy in the cockpit
- Strict selection and training
- Continuous safety management
In private aviation, on the other hand, there are major differences in training, level of technology, resources and experience. This explains the higher accident rate - it is no coincidencebut Consequence of structural differences.
But: Many accidents in private aviation would have been avoidable - This is shown by studies by the BFU (Germany) and EASA regularly.
Conclusion: Flying is not without danger - but it is controllable
Private flying is significantly more dangerous than scheduled flights, about as risky as riding a motorbike - and therefore Not a harmless leisure activity. But with clear risk awareness, good training and disciplined behaviour, the risk can be significantly reduced.
Any pilot who deals with the real risks and proactively takes safety measuresensures that his passion continues to give pleasure in the long term - and does not become a tragedy.
Because safety doesn't start in the cockpit, but in the mind.
Source references:
Aviation magazine